Robinhood Event Contracts to Hit $1.7B by 2028, Bernstein Says
Robinhood's prediction market revenue will hit $1.7 billion in 2028. That's the forecast from Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, who restated the call this week and pushed his wider revenue estimates up across the board. The figure lands just ahead of the $1.6 billion he expects from crypto trading that same year. A narrow gap. But the direction of travel is what counts.
And the trajectory is steep. Chhugani projects $650 million in event contract revenue for this year. If he's right, the business more than doubles over the next two years. He also raised overall revenue estimates for Robinhood by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028. Modest revisions. They stack, though.
One data point has already landed. In the second quarter, prediction market revenue beat Robinhood's crypto business on a quarterly basis for the first time. That crossover deserves attention. Crypto was the growth engine for years. Now yes-or-no contracts are pulling ahead, at least for one quarter.
Third-quarter results land after US markets close on October 27. That release should give a clearer read on how the prediction market offering is actually performing. Watch the segment breakdown, not the headline.
Coinbase sits on a similar curve. Chhugani forecasts $2 billion in revenue from event contracts and derivatives by 2028, up from an estimated $600 million in 2026. More than a threefold increase. The category takes in perpetual futures, which let traders hold positions without a fixed expiry, plus the event contracts Coinbase offers through a partnership with a major prediction market operator. Its crypto balance sheet and existing user base give it room to push into digital-asset contracts, one of the fastest-growing non-sports categories.
The US prediction market sector is still concentrated among a handful of major operators. Brokerages and crypto platforms now compete for the same customers, and that competition will shape pricing and product breadth over the next two years.
For both firms, the strategic value runs past direct trading revenue. Robinhood executives have said some users who start with yes-or-no contracts go on to trade options and futures, or open retirement accounts. Prediction markets work as a customer acquisition channel as much as a product line. For affiliates, the practical read is simple: the onboarding funnel is widening, and event contracts are becoming the first touchpoint for traders who later graduate to higher-value products. Build for that sequence.
Growth will depend on customer demand, trading volume, competition and the regulatory environment. The next number analysts will watch is the Q3 segment split on October 27. If prediction markets beat crypto for a second straight quarter, the $1.7 billion forecast stops looking aggressive.