Sportradar Q3: Prediction Markets Add First Real Revenue
Prediction markets finally paid off for Sportradar in Q3. CEO Carsten Koerl told analysts this was the first quarter in which the category made a positive contribution to results. Partnership delays had pushed that revenue into the back half of the year.
The headline numbers landed well. Group revenue hit €362.5 million, up 24% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA rose 21% to €102.2 million, though the margin slipped from 29.0% to 28.2%. Profit for the period came in at €27 million, a 20% gain.
U.S. revenue accelerated hard. It climbed 47% and accounted for 27% of the total, up from 23% a year earlier. That's a sharp step up from roughly 10% growth in the first half. Sportradar didn't break out how much of the €98 million U.S. figure came from prediction markets. Marketing & Media Services revenue rose 15%, against about 3% in the first half.
Koerl laid out the network behind the new revenue. Three exchange partners (Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig), a first broker agreement with Robinhood, and around 10 market-maker deals. The Polymarket tie-up now spans more than 20 leagues and competitions, having grown from a single sport. Kalshi takes Sportradar's data, integrity, fan-engagement and customer-acquisition products.
Market makers are the next target. Koerl put the wider pool at more than 300 firms, depending on which exchanges you count. Speed is the pitch. "In tennis, we get the line calls 0.2 seconds faster than anybody else," he said, pointing to the official feed. Sportradar is also building a prediction-market feed with real-time data, including an NBA model designed to call events seconds ahead.
The cost side is thin. Prediction markets need minimal incremental investment, the company said, because the same rights, technology and teams already serve the betting business. Sports-rights expenses jumped 54% to €111.7 million, mostly IMG Arena content, with a smaller slice tied to prediction-market work. IMG Arena content drove revenue growth, and the World Cup added about $2.5 billion in Managed Trading Services turnover.
Guidance stayed put: €1.518 billion to €1.533 billion in revenue and €360 million to €368 million in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, excluding the pending Atrium Sports sale. CFO Craig Felenstein said prediction markets are offsetting a softer traditional sportsbook market and uncertainty in Brazil. He wouldn't put a number on the prediction-market contribution, citing deals that mix fixed fees with variable payments tied to market growth. Koerl has previously floated "tens of millions" of euros for 2026, with significant growth expected in 2027.
Cash is flowing. Year-to-date free cash flow rose 18% to €177 million, at 72% conversion. Sportradar bought back $157 million of shares in Q3, taking 2026 purchases to $408 million (28 million shares) through October 30, and $519 million since the plan began. It also agreed to sell Atrium Sports to Teamworks Innovations for $170 million, with the deal expected to close in Q4.
The number analysts will watch next is the prediction-market revenue line Sportradar still won't disclose. Until management splits it out, the 47% U.S. growth does the talking.