Lithuania Blocks Polymarket in First for Prediction Markets

Lithuania's gambling regulator has blocked Polymarket. It's the first prediction market platform the country's authority has shut out.

The Lošimų priežiūros tarnyba, or LPT, handed binding instructions to communication service providers: block access to the website. Payment service providers got their own orders, terminate all transactions with Adventure One QSS, Inc., the company behind the operator.

Investigators at the LPT said they found signs of gambling. Betting, specifically, even though the site calls itself a prediction market, a place where participants trade by buying or selling forecasts on event outcomes. "Such gambling was organised without a license and permit," the regulator stated. The enforcement followed a decision from the Regional Administrative Court, which cleared the way.

Not an isolated move. South Korean authorities moved to block Polymarket last month, after a dispute and review that dragged on for over a month. France, Spain, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have already restricted citizen access. Across Europe, Polymarket's presence has been minimised.

European hopes may rest in Gibraltar, where a regulated prediction markets framework has been established, and in the UK, where the Financial Conduct Authority is set to review whether consumers should have greater access to investments. Lithuania has left little room for doubt.

So far the LPT says it has blocked 2,204 illegal remote gambling websites in its effort to eliminate the black market. That campaign hasn't been without controversy. Over the summer, the European Gaming and Betting Association alleged that Walletto, a local Lithuanian fintech, had been facilitating transactions to illegal online gambling operators. Estimates from the Blask Index put the country's Competitive Earnings Baseline at $284.2m, and according to Blask, nine of Lithuania's most prolific bookmakers don't hold a local licence.

Shutting out one of the most notorious companies for illegal operations worldwide over the past few years is a clear step toward improving channelisation rates. Enforcement now runs across the payment chain, not just access. Payment providers that keep processing transactions for unlicensed operators get direct instructions to stop.

Any operator with Lithuania-facing exposure should treat this as a compliance marker. The LPT has shown it will chase the payment rails, not just the website. For prediction market platforms, the Lithuanian position is plain: trading on event outcomes is betting, and betting needs a licence and a permit. No licence, no access.